…Are Not So Hard and Fast
After my recent webinar held with Netpicks, I have and continue to receive quite a few emails. The questions are all over the map but two show up in just about every single email:
What is the risk/reward ratio?
How much to risk per trade?
Those are fair questions. After all, every single trader has had those two items pounded into their heads time and time again. While it is easy to rattle off the usual answers, it is really too simplistic. After all, positive r/r ratios are not the grail to a successful strategy nor is risking 2% per trade.
So what is the correct answer to each of these questions?
Let’s look at risk to reward
If I take a trade where the risk is $100 and the reward is $300, what is the ratio? I am sure you said the risk to reward is 1-3. Is it? Out of those two dollar amounts, what is the only true definite? The risk amount. The reward amount is potential, what you will shoot for. It is not a definite amount. So if the only definite is my risk, what good is that number? On the surface it makes sense. Make sure your wins are multiples of risk. In actuality, it really doesn’t show the effectiveness of your strategy. Well, what does? While you may not want to totally discard risk/reward ratios for the sake of having a rule set, there is something else you may want to keep your eye on. (Having a high reward to risk based on market structure can increase the probability of making money but is beyond the scope of this article)
The key for me and has been for years is keeping your eye on the average profit made over a series of trades. In no way did I invent this. I was first exposed to it years ago by Van Tharp. Here is the calculation:
Average Profit/Trade = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
Let’s assume you have a strategy that wins 70% of the time. Assume your average win is $400 and your average loss is $800. Most would discount a 1-2 reward to risk strategy.
Plug in some numbers:
(70% * 400) – (30% * 800) =$40.00
Even with a negative r/r, this strategy will still make money. Play around with that calculation and you may be shocked at how a low winning rate can still make you money.
Risk per trade
Since we are talking about risk as well, what is the amount you should risk per trade? 1%? 2%? Sorry, once again there is no straight answer. There are many factors that go into your decision including your comfort level AND your strategy. There are some setups that Iplay where I have risked in the low double digits simply because the probability of making money on it, are great. It may be prudent for those new to trading to stick with the often touted percentages. When to increase your risk percentage is a pretty advanced approach
to trading. If not done properly, you will hand your broker your account faster than you actually funded it.
Check back to Trading Tips for my next video where I go into detail on what moves the markets and how you can learn to cut your trading learning curve in half.
Looking at Buy and Sell Orders and Positions
What if I told you that you could cut your trading learning curve in half if you knew where other fx traders placed their orders? You’d say great but the problem is, there is zero way to know where, with 100% accuracy, all traders have orders. This video is going to show where you can get some positions summary information about other traders but information about their pending orders as well! That is not the big deal though. You can take this information, start getting your head wrapped around other traders and then profit more than they ever will. You see, following the herd leads to disaster. Since most traders fail, doing the opposite can have the opposite effect for you.
Check out my last post to see how I look at the Hard and Fast Rules to Trading.
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